Danyi Apeyeme, Togo West Africa
Sunday, April 22, 2007
I say and write often about how I rely on my intuition to help me when I travel, I would say, I especially use my intuition to protect me from danger.
I was reading this article about bad science that I picked up on from my Hobo News collection of feeds, I will put the references at the end.
There is an idea that our intuition can help to make decisions.
- Defined -
the state of being aware of or knowing something without having to discover or perceive it, or the ability to do this. (2)
I need to make a decision.
I read, learn, study, ask sources, contemplate, I used deductive logic, inductive logic, and try to come to a decision.
The big but.
I have less than 2 seconds to make the decision.
In the well written article by Ben Goldacre, Saturday April 21, 2007 for
- The Guardian - News media source, that I found on the internet it states or talks about random information.
Interestingly in the article there are no references to sources, my intuition is nervous. I try to separate the facts from the fiction, and this is in the Bad Science or maybe what I would say is close to explaining aspects of Junk Science.
-I can tell you: facts are not entirely welcome. When all the evidence goes against someone's beliefs, they will tell you, quite plainly, that they just know it to be true. -
I think of Global Warming, I just cannot figure out a way to study this that would be even remotely conclusive. The sample needs to be maybe 1000 to 20,000 years to be adequate. I tend to just dismiss article or comments about the earth warming as silly and have had some people I highly respect tell me this is true.
I really do not think this is an intuition problem though, although my intutition tell me most are lying.
I need to make decisions as I travel and in life, which way to go, what is safe, is this person good or bad, can this source of information be trusted.
I remember a person and best advice maybe I have ever received on whether to trust and opinion of a person.
- IF a person can make money by giving you bad advice, then do not trust them.-
Intuition to me is about trust issues. If I do not feel safe, if for some reason I am questioning myself. If I do not just believe person, completely. I feel my intuition is giving me a nudge, and say,
- Andy, there is something wrong. -
If I feel weak in the decision, then I only have one choice.
IF I want to error on the side of caution. I have only one choice.
- I say no, and do not do it. -
There are many and most decisions that can be delayed, for sure as in the article about gamblers saying they shall win soon because they have been losing all night. They feel a lucky streak coming on, this is claiming knowledge that cannot be access by the facts.
I highly mistrust anyone that gambles, I feel they are relying on impaired sense of common sense. IF a person could win at random games, like the roll of the dice, then the casinos would not exist.
I think intuition is mostly for people, animals and extremely complicated problems and choices that need to be made. In the end, I still recommend a person use their intuition and make choices.
- If all feels good, then it is probably good. - ALL
- Make the choice, I trust or do not trust this person. -
Note - Do not trust anyone to trust or not trusting a person, I do not listen, I refuse to listen to people who say, I have this trusted friend. You cannot delegate the decision on whom to trust or not to trust. Then again, there are people that need babysitters. A guide is a guide, it is not a yes or no answer, and it is not a recommendation, or at least to me a guidebook is not a recommendation, it is more or less a suggested idea of where or what to do, it is listing some options and choices.
Intuition is for when there are just too many variables. Often these are not critical questions and really just a decision to say, do I want to go here or there. I want to know, what I want to do.
I had a choice to make recently in Tsevie, Togo, do I go towards the Benin border to chase the hippos, or do I go to Kpalime and north. I was talking to the taxi driver, he gave me two choices, I decided in that second to go to Kpalime, however all day, all night I was going towards the hippos. It came down to I wanted to go to Kpalime, not I need this or I need that or I told people this or that. I blogged this I planned that, I am traveling for fun; I follow the fun and my intuition.
Something is in the way of my mind, I just did not want to go towards Benin now, and the decision can be delayed forever or now, I can go if and when I want, or never, not anybody really cares, except for me.
I like the flip the coin thing, I choose head or tails then flip the coin, I then know what I wish it to be before I look at the results. I go with my wish, not the coin flip.
The article is about gamblers fallacy, and good, however if you are afraid, you are afraid.
I truly hope this link does not break and continues to exist; I apologize in advance if it breaks, and these news companies make difficult links. I have given essential information for searching, with the hope they do not delete the articles, ever…
Winning streaks that risk losing the plot
By Ben Goldacre
Saturday April 21, 2007
Intuition, Danger, West Africa Danger, What is good advice,