Africa is Doomed Lome Togo West Africa Saturday, June 2, 2007
I would think, many people would say yes, or agree.
I am learning to how to love listen to Volunteers in Africa, as they explain their experiences and their projects. I now see there is an epidemic in Africa of “Confirmation Bias.” The volunteers, ONG, NGO, and other project workers, the well intended ones tell me stories, and I try to be kind, yet I am thinking, where in the world did they come up with that one, and I think, they read about West Africa before they came, now they have found what they read.
QUOTE: In psychology and cognitive science, confirmation bias is a tendency to search for or interpret new information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions and avoid information and interpretations which contradict prior beliefs. It is a type of cognitive bias and represents an error of inductive inference, or as a form of selection bias toward confirmation of the hypothesis under study or disconfirmation of an alternative hypothesis.
Confirmation bias is an area of interest in the teaching of critical thinking as the skill is misused when rigorous critical scrutiny is applied to evidence supporting a preconceived idea but not to evidence challenging the same preconception. STOP QUOTE
Decision-making and behavioral biases Many of these biases are studied for how they affect belief formation and business decisions and scientific research.
Bandwagon effect — the tendency to do (or believe) things because many other people do (or believe) the same. Related to groupthink, herd behaviour, and manias. Bias blind spot — the tendency not to compensate for one's own cognitive biases. Choice-supportive bias — the tendency to remember one's choices as better than they actually were. Confirmation bias — the tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions. Congruence bias — the tendency to test hypotheses exclusively through direct testing, in contrast to tests of possible alternative hypotheses. Contrast effect — the enhancement or diminishment of a weight or other measurement when compared with recently observed contrasting object. Déformation professionnelle — the tendency to look at things according to the conventions of one's own profession, forgetting any broader point of view. Endowment effect — "the fact that people often demand much more to give up an object than they would be willing to pay to acquire it". Focusing effect — prediction bias occurring when people place too much importance on one aspect of an event; causes error in accurately predicting the utility of a future outcome. Hyperbolic discounting — the tendency for people to have a stronger preference for more immediate payoffs relative to later payoffs, the closer to the present both payoffs are. Illusion of control — the tendency for human beings to believe they can control or at least influence outcomes that they clearly cannot. Impact bias — the tendency for people to overestimate the length or the intensity of the impact of future feeling states. Information bias — the tendency to seek information even when it cannot affect action. Loss aversion — "the disutility of giving up an object is greater than the utility associated with acquiring it". (see also sunk cost effects and Endowment effect). Neglect of probability — the tendency to completely disregard probability when making a decision under uncertainty. Mere exposure effect — the tendency for people to express undue liking for things merely because they are familiar with them. Omission bias — The tendency to judge harmful actions as worse, or less moral, than equally harmful omissions (inactions). Outcome bias — the tendency to judge a decision by its eventual outcome instead of based on the quality of the decision at the time it was made. Planning fallacy — the tendency to underestimate task-completion times. Post-purchase rationalization — the tendency to persuade oneself through rational argument that a purchase was a good value. Pseudocertainty effect — the tendency to make risk-averse choices if the expected outcome is positive, but make risk-seeking choices to avoid negative outcomes. Reactance - the urge to do the opposite of what someone wants you to do out of a need to reassert a perceived attempt to constrain your freedom of choice. Selective perception — the tendency for expectations to affect perception. Status quo bias — the tendency for people to like things to stay relatively the same (see also Loss aversion and Endowment effect). Von Restorff effect — the tendency for an item that "stands out like a sore thumb" to be more likely to be remembered than other items. Zero-risk bias — preference for reducing a small risk to zero over a greater reduction in a larger risk.
NOTE: Africa is not doomed, it is actually in great shape.