Talk of Danger

Everyone needs a little danger and uncertainty in their life.

Need?
Want?
Uncertainty?

What I need? What I want? What is certain and uncertain? I can not even tell you what day it is for sure, I have trouble know this for sure.

I must not have delusions or illusions that I am safe.

I continually harp on the people in the Five Star Hotels. These are the people that get beheaded in Indonesia. It is not the backpacker in the untra-cheap hotels.

You cannot buy a safe hotel, no amount of money will make you safe. To be safe, you need to blend in and hide in plane site, somehow not be noticed.

Guides, I despise a guide or person who wants to translate for me. I suddenly become a target. Everyone suddently thinks, hey we have a stupid person who with a guide, the guide helps them to take my money in 95 percent of the time.

90 percert of all days are uncertain and 90 percent of a day we live believing that the day was certain, most things are uncertain, unstable.

I think God, I know my mothers love is certain. Most families on the planet cannot trust their mother, their father or their wive and children.

Andy,

Iran...

And what will become of air travel when the mid east powder keg blows. Oil supply disruptions will mean painful prices for fuel and air travel tickets, real or imagined. I suppose in an extreme case were looking at a nuclear scenario and possibly little to NO supply from the region. That would impact the developed countries the most me thinks.

Less developed might be the plan B.

Reminds me of a quote you posted ... "All I want to know is where the fallout goes"
- Mark Boise in Manila December 14, 2006

I hate even thinking about this stuff.

Eric

Iran

I do not see Iran as a big problem. We disrupted the flow of oil from Iraq, and not big problems.

There is this belief that I think is redically wrong. There is a belief that the Middle East is one cohesive group of countries that all hates the USA and England.

I think the Middle East loves the USA and England. Look at Dubai, I think Halliburtan just moved it corporate headquarters there.

The dependency on oil is one sided. The Middle East needs the USA as a buyer, more than we need to buy from the Middle East.

China is becoming a big buyer, but if the oil in the Middle East is dirrupted. If for example Iran cannot sell oil, they will quickly go broke, they hae one source of major income, oil. It is a very unstable country.

What is the world going to do, if Israel Nuclear bombs Iran. I think they will complain for years. I do not think it will escalate.

I do believe Iran is stupid enough to develop a bomb. Then before this happens,the same as in Iraq, Israel or the USA, England will go in and stop them, clean their clock.

The weapon of mass destruction in Iraq was not a nuclear, not a bio, not this. It is and was a person, Saddaam. He had the oil money to buy a nuclear or bio weapon and the stupidity to use it. There was no options, we needed to stop him.

The war was about beheading a macho representation of power. This person has now been replaced by the person in Iran.

The World is very Macho, I am in an extremely Macho place. I need to confront the big dogs, tell them who is boss first, then all is good.

The USA, England, and yes Europe all work together to keep any small, and I do mean very small country like Iran from believing they have real power.

The war in Iraq is NOT a war, it is just a media hyped police action.

In a war, 100s of people die daily and in a real war 1000s

More people are dying around the world in minutes by getting hit by cars.

Mark was right, I just do not want to be downwind of the nuclear cloud when Iran gets erased. I hope they do not get erased, yet they are up and volunteering, and when people do this type of thing, someone volunteers to erase.

Africa is safe, Iran is safe, it is the big dogs on the planet, the tyrants that are problem stll.

Peaces is breaking out all over the planet, it is becoming increasing difficult to find a good places to have the S H.. scared out of me. No good place to explore where life is real and thrilling.

Now we just have politician fighting in bluster and noise.

Do not worry, the worried is very safe.

Andy,

Heres a inflation adjusted crude oil price chart from 1947 to 2006 and related conflict time line.


Crude Oil Prices - WTRG Economics

Eric